Experts for the Media

The U.S. national debt exceeding the size of the American economy is a dubious milestone that has sparked alarm and confusion among policymakers who are asking how worried they should be and what can be done to stop the bleeding.

David Primo, a political scientist and professor of business administration at the University of Rochester and a fiscal policy expert who has testified before Congress on the national debt, says Americans should be very concerned about the debt and, at the same time, know there is a solution.

“The federal budget outlook is grim and threatens the economic future of the United States,” says Primo, the author of Rules and Restraint: Government Spending and the Design of Institution (University of Chicago Press). “If Congress waits to act, Americans will need to give up a bigger piece of the nation’s economic pie to stabilize the country’s finances.”

Primo says a solution lies in a constitutional amendment restraining the federal budget. Specifically, such an amendment would clearly define spending and revenue, set spending limits based on a multiyear period, and allow for waiving the limit only with a large supermajority in Congress.

“As it stands, Congress is constitutionally incapable of tying its own hands, making it difficult for legislators to implement durable changes to the federal budget,” Primo says.

Recent data show the national debt has crossed 100% of the GDP threshold — roughly $31.27 trillion versus $31.22 trillion in economic output — marking the highest peacetime level in U.S. history. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that debt levels, if left unchecked, could reach 181% of GDP in the next 30 years.

Primo says delaying implementing a solution raises the risk of increased interest rates, which would, in turn, reduce investment and, ultimately, economic growth.

For journalists covering deficits, tax policy, and the long-term economic outlook, Primo offers key expertise and a clear lens on:

• The implications of national debt exceeding GDP
• Constitutional and institutional approaches to fiscal reform
• Fiscal policy and political incentives

“The United States is in precarious fiscal health,” Primo told Congress in 2023. “In the absence of a constitutional amendment, I fear it will take a fiscal crisis before Congress acts. Nobody wants that.”

Connect with Primo by clicking on his profile.

Put down the protest signs already. Retire the “Save Pluto” pins. Step away from the planetary outrage. Seriously.

So says University of Rochester astrophysicist Adam Frank in his latest column in Forbes. Frank explains that the real story behind Pluto being stripped of its planetary status in 2006 isn’t about what Pluto lost, but what scientists found.

Pluto made news recently when NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman replied to a Florida girl’s handwritten plea to restore Pluto’s designation as a planet, saying he supported such a move.

Frank has one word for Isaacman: Stop!

“Now Isaacman seems like a good guy and I sure don’t want to make little kids cry,” Frank writes. “Still, there’s an amazing science reason why Pluto got kicked out of the planet club.”

For decades, Frank explains, we thought the solar system ended with the nine familiar planets, with Pluto being the most distant. But beyond Neptune lies the Kuiper Belt, a vast expanse filled with icy remnants from the birth of the solar system.

These objects are essentially the leftover building blocks of planets. Pluto, it turns out, is one of them.

That matters because this cosmic debris holds crucial clues about how planets form. Studying Pluto and its neighbors helps scientists understand the origins of Earth and the potential for life elsewhere in the universe.

So, Pluto isn’t an outcast; it’s a key witness to our cosmic history. It belongs to a newly understood class of worlds that are central to modern astronomy.

Rather than mourn Pluto’s status and push for restoring its former title, Frank suggests we celebrate its reclassification as the moment astronomers realized the solar system is far richer than they had ever imagined.

If you’re a journalist looking for an expert to talk about Pluto — or planets and worlds formerly known as planets — Frank is your scholar. He is a frequent contributor to the likes of CNN, The New York Times, The Atlantic, and MSNBC, and can help your audience make sense of our vast universe.

As Americans scale back spending on luxuries and some necessities — from dining out and live entertainment to home and auto maintenance — the ripple effects are being felt across the broader economy.

Daniel Burnside, clinical professor of finance at the Simon Business School, says the trend reflects more than just belt-tightening and signals deeper structural pressures tied to energy markets.
“Higher energy prices push inflation up and growth down, putting monetary policymakers in a bind,” Burnside says, explaining the current situation as being beyond a typical price spike.

“This isn’t just a price shock, it’s a capacity shock,” he says. “You can’t just flip a switch back to normal because a lot of energy infrastructure has been destroyed.

That distinction matters. Because energy costs are embedded in nearly every good and service, rising prices squeeze consumers beyond the gas pump. The result is reduced discretionary spending at venues like sporting and live music events, restaurants, and leisure destinations.

Looking ahead, Burnside says a rapid rebound in discretionary spending is possible but unlikely.

“If, by some miracle, energy prices quickly return to prewar levels, you would see a sharp run-up in discretionary stocks,” he says. “But that’s precisely because expectations are so low.”

For now, markets are signaling that a swift return to pre-crisis conditions isn’t on its way, Burnside says. Until energy supply stabilizes, the pressure on both consumers and the businesses that rely on it is likely to persist.

Burnside regularly fields inquiries from journalists looking for his insight on personal money matters and investing. Contact him by clicking on his profile.